Aglet

Triage Unsupported Confidence in an Agent Result

Confidence is a claim about support, not a substitute for support. Triage should identify the statement carrying certainty, list its evidence and alternatives, and compare the wording with known limits. Bound the affected decision and separate missing proof from a poorly calibrated label.

Establish what is happening

  1. Extract certainty claims

    Copy each material conclusion and its confidence wording, then identify the decision it could influence. Classify certainty as direct observation, derived result, interpretation, hypothesis, or unsupported assertion. Mark absolute terms and precise rankings that lack a stated comparison.

  2. Compare support and limits

    Inventory cited artifacts, source age, cohort, calculations, counterexamples, and unresolved questions. Check whether evidence supports the claim, only narrows possibilities, or conflicts with it. Record missing alternatives and limitations beside the exact sentence that overstates certainty.

  3. Bound decision exposure

    Identify records, release, workflow, or human action affected by the confidence statement. Compare similar results or prior labels only when their evidence is comparable. Record whether the problem is isolated wording, a repeated task pattern, or a decision rule with no confidence standard.

What to carry forward

Return a confidence-gap brief with exact claims, evidence, alternatives, limits, affected decision, and wording risk. Triage stops when a reviewer can see the supported strength and the unsupported excess. Keep the result provisional when comparable evidence or a confidence standard is absent.

Keep the decision with the work.

Use a Work Item in Aglet to record the problem, the evidence you have, and the next decision. Add an owner and priority, then keep updates in the discussion so the next person can follow the reasoning.

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